# Critica’s Jupiter study models $2bn rare earths project with two-year payback Canonical Atlas analysis: https://atlas-staging.minestarters.com/news/critica-s-jupiter-study-models-2bn-rare-earths-project-with-two-year-payback--baa9524d-836b-46de-b09d-29a9d2c31107 Original source: https://stockhead.com.au/resources/criticas-jupiter-study-models-2bn-rare-earths-project-with-two-year-payback/ Publisher: stockhead Original announcement: 2026-10-20T01:47:25.000Z Analysis by Minestarters Atlas Atlas analysis published: 2026-10-20T03:04:06.888Z Atlas analysis updated: 2026-10-20T03:04:06.888Z - Company: Critica - Ticker: CRI - Exchange: Unavailable - Region: Western Australia - Primary commodity: Rare earths - Secondary commodities: Iron ore, Gallium, Scandium - Document categories: Other, Resource update, Metallurgy - Extracted: 2026-10-20 03:04:07 UTC Narrative sentiment: 0.80 · Bullish ## Minestarters Atlas summary Critica has released a scoping study for its Jupiter rare earths project in Western Australia, modeling an after-tax NPV of approximately A$2bn and an IRR of 48.4%. The study outlines a 14-year operation based on an updated 1.7Bt resource, with a production target heavily supported by Indicated Resources. Reasoning: The scoping study presents compelling preliminary economics for a large-scale rare earths project with high-confidence resource categories supporting the production target. - Positive factor: Strong economic indicators with A$2bn NPV and 48.4% IRR - Positive factor: Short two-year payback period - Positive factor: High proportion of Indicated Resources \(96.6% of production target\) - Positive factor: Significant upside potential from excluded iron, gallium, and scandium - Positive factor: Large scale resource of 1.7Bt - Negative factor: Scoping study level of confidence \(preliminary\) - Negative factor: Modelled TREO recovery \(58%\) is below the design basis \(63%\) - Negative factor: Project relies on future resource conversion and expansion Facts used in scoring: 3 ## Classification and evidence **Maiden Resource** Polarity: neutral Definition: First formal MRE for the project — establishes baseline but typically exploration-stage with high Inferred component. Why it applies: The study reports Jupiter's first Indicated Resource. Evidence · text > Jupiter’s first Indicated Resource of 160Mt **Cut-off Disclosed** Polarity: positive Definition: Cut-off grade used for resource reporting is clearly stated, enabling like-for-like comparison. Why it applies: The resource estimate specifies a 1000ppm TREO cut-off. Evidence · text > reported at a 1000ppm TREO cut-off **Mill Route** Polarity: neutral Definition: Processing via mill or concentrator \(CIL, CIP, tank leach, flotation\). Why it applies: the document describes a flotation route \("concentrate"\) **Single Domain Only** Polarity: negative Definition: Testing limited to one composite or domain — representativeness not established. Why it applies: only one composite was tested ## Extracted facts Stored fact records: 3. Some facts used in scoring do not have a stored record. ## Resource Estimates (2) ### indicated [Link to this fact](https://atlas-staging.minestarters.com/news/critica-s-jupiter-study-models-2bn-rare-earths-project-with-two-year-payback--baa9524d-836b-46de-b09d-29a9d2c31107#fact-resource-facts-0) Jupiter · rare\_earths #### Identity - Project: Jupiter - Commodity: rare\_earths - Region: australia\_wa - Reported Region: Western Australia - Ticker: CRI #### Resource scope - Estimate type: resource - Resource group id: resource:ce65fa9ec9edafdcfdce - Deposit or zone: Jupiter - Mining method: open\_pit - Material type: weathered - Ownership percent: 100 % - Resource basis: gross #### Resource Data - Category: indicated - Tonnes: 160000000 - Grade: 1700 - Grade Unit: ppm #### Review - Needs Review: No - Historical: No #### Dates - Event date: 2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z Reasoning: High-confidence resource category reported for the first time. - Positive factor: First Indicated Resource reported for the project Evidence · text > Jupiter’s first Indicated Resource of 160Mt at 1700ppm TREO #### Tags used in scoring **Indicated Resource** Polarity: positive Definition: Reasonable geological confidence based on adequate drilling; continuity can be assumed. Basis for Probable Reserves. Why it applies: category is "indicated" **Cut-off Undisclosed** Polarity: negative Definition: High-grade interval reported without stating the cut-off grade used for compositing. Why it applies: no cutoff\_grade was stated **No Contained Metal** Polarity: negative Definition: Tonnage and grade reported but contained metal not calculated or disclosed — incomplete reporting. Why it applies: contained\_metal was not reported **No QP/CP Disclosure** Polarity: negative Definition: No Qualified Person or Competent Person named — lower credibility for the estimate. A QP/CP should be a member of a recognized professional association with relevant experience. Why it applies: no Qualified or Competent Person is named anywhere in the release **Resource Update** Polarity: neutral Definition: Revised estimate for an existing resource — compare to prior to assess progress. Why it applies: the release compares against a previous estimate **PEA-Supporting** Polarity: neutral Definition: Resource estimate prepared to support a Preliminary Economic Assessment — early-stage study. Why it applies: the release names the study this estimate supports **PFS-Supporting** Polarity: neutral Definition: Resource estimate prepared to support a Pre-Feasibility Study — requires adequate M&I component. Why it applies: the release names the study this estimate supports **DFS-Supporting** Polarity: neutral Definition: Resource estimate prepared to support a Definitive Feasibility Study — requires high M&I confidence. Why it applies: the release names the study this estimate supports ### inferred [Link to this fact](https://atlas-staging.minestarters.com/news/critica-s-jupiter-study-models-2bn-rare-earths-project-with-two-year-payback--baa9524d-836b-46de-b09d-29a9d2c31107#fact-resource-facts-1) Jupiter · rare\_earths #### Identity - Project: Jupiter - Commodity: rare\_earths - Region: australia\_wa - Reported Region: Western Australia - Ticker: CRI #### Resource scope - Estimate type: resource - Resource group id: resource:f1d30c610df45dc52568 - Deposit or zone: Jupiter - Mining method: open\_pit - Material type: weathered - Ownership percent: 100 % - Resource basis: gross #### Resource Data - Category: inferred - Tonnes: 1540000000 - Grade: 1700 - Grade Unit: ppm #### Review - Needs Review: No - Historical: No #### Dates - Event date: 2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z Reasoning: Large volume of resource remains in the lower-confidence inferred category. - Positive factor: Large scale of inferred resource - Negative factor: Speculative category Evidence · text > 1.7Bt at 1700ppm TREO, including Jupiter’s first Indicated Resource of 160Mt #### Tags used in scoring **Inferred Resource** Polarity: negative Definition: Speculative category — limited drilling, geological continuity assumed but not confirmed. Cannot support economic studies alone. Why it applies: category is "inferred" **Cut-off Undisclosed** Polarity: negative Definition: High-grade interval reported without stating the cut-off grade used for compositing. Why it applies: no cutoff\_grade was stated **No Contained Metal** Polarity: negative Definition: Tonnage and grade reported but contained metal not calculated or disclosed — incomplete reporting. Why it applies: contained\_metal was not reported **No QP/CP Disclosure** Polarity: negative Definition: No Qualified Person or Competent Person named — lower credibility for the estimate. A QP/CP should be a member of a recognized professional association with relevant experience. Why it applies: no Qualified or Competent Person is named anywhere in the release **Resource Update** Polarity: neutral Definition: Revised estimate for an existing resource — compare to prior to assess progress. Why it applies: the release compares against a previous estimate **PEA-Supporting** Polarity: neutral Definition: Resource estimate prepared to support a Preliminary Economic Assessment — early-stage study. Why it applies: the release names the study this estimate supports **PFS-Supporting** Polarity: neutral Definition: Resource estimate prepared to support a Pre-Feasibility Study — requires adequate M&I component. Why it applies: the release names the study this estimate supports **DFS-Supporting** Polarity: neutral Definition: Resource estimate prepared to support a Definitive Feasibility Study — requires high M&I confidence. Why it applies: the release names the study this estimate supports ## Metallurgical Results (1) ### Fact 1 [Link to this fact](https://atlas-staging.minestarters.com/news/critica-s-jupiter-study-models-2bn-rare-earths-project-with-two-year-payback--baa9524d-836b-46de-b09d-29a9d2c31107#fact-metallurgical-facts-2) Jupiter · rare\_earths #### Identity - Project: Jupiter - Commodity: rare\_earths - Region: australia\_wa - Reported Region: Western Australia - Ticker: CRI #### Test Work - Program Status: scoping - Sample: Jupiter project scoping study #### Recovery - Recovery: 58 % - Recovery Basis: actual\_test - Head Grade: 1700 - Head Grade Unit: ppm #### Review - Needs Review: No - Historical: No #### Dates - Event date: 2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z Reasoning: The modelled recovery of 58% is lower than the 63% design basis mentioned in the study. - Negative factor: Recovery modelled below design basis Evidence · text > The financial model adopts 58% overall TREO recovery... below the study’s 63% design basis ## How Atlas produces this analysis Minestarters Atlas uses automated extraction to summarize mining announcements, identify reported measurements, and classify supporting evidence. Sentiment reflects the extracted narrative and classification rules; it is an interpretation, not a reported measurement. Evidence quotes and context are provided where available. Missing data, low-confidence results, and review flags indicate limitations. Check the original publisher announcement before relying on an interpretation.